Financial Crisis Analogy

Note to self: Use the financial crisis as an analogy for the use of frequentist methods in clinical trials.

The massive bonuses for executives of financial companies who may benefit from their risky bets through bonuses etc—but don’t share the same level of risk when everything goes wrong—is obvious to anyone who as thought about it; and prior to the crisis was documented by many.

But, due to inertia (and self-interest), nothing was done. A series of pat answers were developed for the problem that rely on beliefs about the free market and an attitude of `this is the way things are’ (don’t screw with them).

Debates around frequentist methods seem similar. The critiques are out there, and even the proponents seem to accept them. But nothing is done. You provide the critique and the response is: `yes that has been discussed, see ref x’; and yet there is no change to the status quo.

Fortunately (though from a rhetorical perspective: unfortunately) an episode equivalent to the financial crisis has not occurred, and perhaps will not occur in medical research; there are many examples, rofecoxib for example, but none seem to reach as far as the financial crisis.

I am sure there are as many disanalogies as there are analogies, but maybe there is a way to write it zingy enough to make the point.